Category: Investment Outlook
The resilience narrative comes under pressure
27 October 2023A potentially meaningful change in correlations happened this week. In recent times, a fall in yields (and therefore a rise in bond prices) would go alongside rises in equity prices, particularly the mega-cap growth consumer-related...
Bond yield volatility has markets guessing
20 October 2023While the human suffering in the Middle East conflict worsened as expected this week, it has not yet spread further across the region. Therefore, and as we wrote last week, markets have not particularly acknowledged the rise in...
Capital markets and war
13 October 2023This past week saw the world most certainly taken a turn for the worse from a humanitarian point of view. Pictures of the atrocities committed in the Middle East, and indeed the timing, drew immediate parallels with the Yom Kippur...
Recession fears creeping back
6 October 2023The balmy autumn temperatures have continued into October, but the market chill that has also carried through from September is more troubling. We discuss the asset class returns of the past month and quarter in our next article. ...
To yield or not to yield
24 September 2023This week, stocks and bondsare still bruised from the ‘hawkish pause’. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on Wednesday that it would hold interest rates steady at 5.25-5.5%, but threw in some stern forward guidance to...
Central bank hawks determined to defang inflation
15 September 2023The European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates yesterday, with the majority of its Governing Council members concerned that the inflation parasite may be alive for a while longer. Of course, parasites can continue to be robust while...
Energy in focus – oil prices up and an ill wind for renewables
8 September 2023Markets have been generally quiet at the start of September but energy is again becoming an issue for equity and credit markets. Oil prices have risen since the start of the summer, with Brent crude having bounced along a bottom...
The US back at the top of the class
1 September 2023Summer is officially over, but we are none the wiser regarding the direction of the economy. Or are we? Well, we quite likely are, but just a bit and not enough to know if next month’s equity markets will be higher or lower...
Transcontinental growth divergence
25 August 2023We don’t seem to be able to get away from writing about how bond yields have been driving equity markets due to their influence on underlying valuation dynamics. We wrote about it last week, on many occasions over the past two...
Bonds are back
18 August 2023Both equity and bond markets have had another rather difficult week and with it August has mostly erased the positive returns of July. From the medium-term perspective, UK-listed equities are nearly back down to the level at which...