New government, same economy

5 July 2024

Keir Starmer was not wrong when he called this an historic victory. It is the Labour party’s first election win since 2005, ending 14 years of Conservative rule and handing the latter party its worst ever defeat. The results...

The business of politics, politics without policy

28 June 2024

This Friday marks the end of the second quarter and the day after the first, and for Biden disastrous, televised debate of the 2024 US Presidential election – yet markets have been reasonably calm. Large institutional investors...

Stock market highs don’t feel so high

21 June 2024

It was another mixed week for capital markets. Global stocks reached another all-time high on Thursday, but the mood feels subdued. This is partly seasonal: US traders had a shortened week due to the “Juneteenth” national...

Still mostly sticking to the plan

14 June 2024

After a cacophony of political noise, central bankers were again the ones to really strike a chord with capital markets this week. Britain’s political parties unveiled their manifestos and French President Macron shocked everyone...

ECB’s Lagard makes rate cut history

7 June 2024

Rate cuts at last. In a heavily anticipated decision, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the first time in five years on Thursday. Perhaps more poignantly, it was the very first time in its 25 years existence...

Nvidia versus the Fed

24 May 2024

Following the strong upwards surge in stocks and bonds at the beginning of May, capital markets have recently moderated and were mostly flat, to slightly down, overall this week. Britons were preoccupied with Rishi Sunak’s surprise...

Pluses and minuses

17 May 2024

It was a decent week for investors, with global stocks up around 1% from last Friday. British and European equities finished virtually flat, with the US and China slightly up. The gain for US stocks was not outsized, but it was...

A blooming May for the UK

10 May 2024

Stocks and bonds had a good week again, revelling in the after-effects of last week’s US Federal Reserve meeting and signals of a tepid US jobs market in the April employment report. Hong Kong stocks did particularly well, after...

Still sticking to the plan

3 May 2024

Equity and bond markets have had a reasonably good week, with policy makers helping to calm nerves. Geopolitical concerns retreated further; the US and Saudi Arabia are close to a bilateral agreement which may well include the...

Inflation, a common side effect of growth

26 April 2024

Intraday equity market volatility is back, as this roller coaster week showed. Still, we yet again seem to be ending flattish after a busy end to the week. ...