Bond markets unnerve equity markets – again

9 August 2019

We have repeatedly commented on these pages that the good mood in asset markets this year is more to do with central bank policy than a positive backdrop of the real economy. With poor economic fundamentals, central banks will...

The Elephant and the Little Old Lady: A tale of two Central Banks

2 August 2019

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Dickens’ immortal line roughly sums up the differing actions of two of the world’s major central banks this week. In the US, the Federal Reserve looked at a stable and growing...

The quick and the not-so-quick

27 July 2019

It’s official: May is out and Boris is in. But despite the political changes this could bring, currency markets hardly reacted. £-sterling started the month at €1=£0.897, and remains at that level at the time of writing....

Twere well it were done quickly

19 July 2019

It has been another reasonable week for risk assets, especially equities. At the time of writing, markets around the world are within a percentage point of last week’s highs. In the US, large cap stocks are floating just off...

Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs – for how long?

5 July 2019

The highly anticipated meeting between US President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Osaka came and went - with somewhat of a damp squib outcome compared to some sky-high expectations of an end to...

The middle of the year – a tipping point?

28 June 2019

We’re heading into the end of the first half of the year, so let’s go through where what we were thinking at the start of the year and where we are now. The end of 2018 saw another bout of market liquidity squeeze and its...

Mixed messages

14 June 2019

After a good start, June has carried on in a positive way for investors. Over the past week stock markets consolidated their gains, while bond yields stopped falling. Following the rapid deterioration of US manufacturing data,...

The return of the central bank put?

7 June 2019

Stock markets had a very good week – for all the wrong reasons. Economic data reports confirmed that 2018’s US economic expansion is rapidly decelerating towards outright stagnation as companies appear to batten down the hatches...

Bond rally musings…

31 May 2019

It all seemed to make a lot of sense to the media commentators this past week: government bonds rallied and equity markets fell because investors no longer expect a return of meaningful global economic growth during 2019, and...

It is getting warmer?

24 May 2019

Unfortunately this headline is not intended to suggest that things are getting better, but rather that Donald Trump’s trade war is heating up. In a way I feel reminded of the Cold War between the US and the USSR in my youth,...