Category: Investment Outlook
Data vs Davos
19 January 2024This week, global capital markets resumed their volatile path of last year, as the positive sentiment, driven by expectations of an imminent and significant onset of rate cuts, began to wane somewhat. The combination of a distinct...
A bumpy upwards path ahead
12 January 2024Every hangover comes to an end and the equity market’s malaise lasted no longer than usual. After refusing to get out of bed last week, this week the markets decided to go to work. Europe recovered last week’s losses while...
After the party, the hangover
5 January 2024The first week of January feeling is eerily reminiscent of one year ago: strikes, endless rain and then everything else that causes the usual January blues. Yet investors in diversified global investment portfolios will get a...
Policy and politics set to play a pivotal role in 2024
18 December 2023Heading into 2024, capital markets are in a somewhat contradictory position. Global growth has been slow (and in some places negative) for some time, while central banks have raised interest rates at the fastest pace in a generation....
Central bank elves boost 2023 Santa rally
15 December 2023Looking back to a year ago, the introduction article to our 2023 outlook was titled: ‘Central bank scrooges cancel Santa rally’. One year can be a long time, and this year provided a very welcome Santa rally to end it. This...
Price shock reversal
1 December 2023November brought investors the opposite of October and turned most portfolio returns into positive mid-single-digit numbers for the year. As we have written here over the past weeks, the distinct turn in sentiment that drove markets...
US economy slows to our pace
24 November 2023November remains a positive month in capital markets, although equities had a neutral week and longer bond prices have fallen back. UK government bonds (Gilts) have been the best performing bond market in the past few weeks, but...
Inflation genie back in the bottle?
17 November 2023This week was another good one for most investors. In sterling terms, the strongest equity markets were in Europe with the DAX up 4.5% since last Friday afternoon. The biggest winners have been small and mid-sized firms; the FTSE...
Back pedalling central bankers
10 November 2023The turnaround rally in stock and bond markets – started by last week’s dovish central bank comments – petered out towards the end of this week, with central bankers seemingly at pains to reverse their messaging or at least...
Dovishness proves contagious
3 November 2023Just how much change a week can bring to markets was amply visible during the last seven days. Last Friday we wrote about how negative sentiment in stock markets can turn into a self-perpetuating destructive force for an entire...