Category: Investment Outlook
Ceasefire, not truce, in global trade war
11 April 2025After a week of eye-watering ups and downs, stock markets are roughly where they started but still well below where they were before Trump’s April 2nd ‘Liberation Day’. For bond holders, it has been equally volatile but...
Trump’s Liberation Day turns into market clear out
4 April 2025Donald Trump’s tariffs upset markets, which were unprepared for their magnitude. The US imposed a 10% tariff on most imports, and additional “reciprocal” tariffs on major trading partners. Unsurprisingly, this was followed...
Tariff ‘stick’ to be followed by ‘fiscal’ carrot?
28 March 2025As most of us are aware, markets have recently been taking one step forward, one step back and this week was no different. Equity markets started with a bit of positivity amid talk that Trump’s April 2nd tariff “Liberation...
Bracing for tariff “Liberation Day”
21 March 2025Capital markets were calmer for most of the week, with a little turbulence into the end. Up until Thursday close, stock prices moved higher and measures of intraday volatility fell somewhat, largely thanks to fewer signs of policy...
Just another growth scare or more?
14 March 2025Following the pause last week, the stock market sell-off unfortunately resumed this week. Global government bonds unhelpfully joined the downdraft as bond yields edged up. Equity markets are generally only slightly lower in Sterling...
The return of regional divergence
7 March 2025At the time of writing, global stocks in aggregate are around where they were a week ago in local currency terms, but the fall in the US Dollar means the Bloomberg World index is about -3% in Sterling terms. ...
Honeymoon ends early
28 February 2025There was no meaningful recovery for US stocks this week, following their cold shower last Friday. By contrast, Europe actually managed to warm a little through this week. Investors’ shift away from the US continues, and markets...
Global politics turn business
21 February 2025We end the week on a slightly downbeat note, not borne out of the astounding shifts in US foreign policy, but because US domestic service sector sentiment seems to have sagged. The US 10-year bond yield has dropped back to below...
Europe First?
14 February 2025Another dramatic week in global politics had rare and fascinating effects on capital markets. The Trump administration’s apparent plan to negotiate a Ukraine peace deal without European input, but leave European nations to foot...
Up and down and on and off
7 February 2025The week began with, potentially, a very distasteful pill to swallow. On Friday evening, just before 6pm GMT and after European markets had closed, Trump announced another 10% of tariffs on China and new 25% tariffs on Mexico...