Category: Investment Outlook
Return of the bond vigilantes
23 May 2025After weeks of unimpeded recovery, this week’s pull back in global stock prices was probably to be expected. The story that Trump is back on the tariff war-path with the EU, planning to impose 50% levies (possibly before the...
A rally that requires belief
16 May 2025A good week for US stocks has erased the year’s losses in dollar terms (in sterling terms, they are mildly negative). The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is officially in a bullish trend – passing the 20% up mark from April’s trough....
Markets calm but trouble still bubbles
12 May 2025Despite the India-Pakistan hostilities, markets remained calm this week. Measured price volatility came down substantially although, due to global economic uncertainty, implied future volatility – the cost of insuring your assets...
Markets cheer US policy stabilisation
2 May 2025It ends as a pretty good week for global markets. That is despite dire US GDP figures, mixed earnings reports from the biggest US tech companies and, for us, disappointing news that a US-UK trade deal is unlikely to come soon....
Improving mood versus slowing growth
25 April 2025Capital markets bounced this week and the mood notably improved. Media commentary put this down to Donald Trump’s softer rhetoric on Chinese tariffs, and his affirmation of the US central bank’s (the Federal Reserve’s) independence....
Volatility drops but uncertainty remains
17 April 2025We head into the long Easter weekend with calmer markets than a week ago – but without any strong rebound. Time off from the tariff drama has helped the mood and eased last week’s liquidity concerns, but there still is not...
Ceasefire, not truce, in global trade war
11 April 2025After a week of eye-watering ups and downs, stock markets are roughly where they started but still well below where they were before Trump’s April 2nd ‘Liberation Day’. For bond holders, it has been equally volatile but...
Trump’s Liberation Day turns into market clear out
4 April 2025Donald Trump’s tariffs upset markets, which were unprepared for their magnitude. The US imposed a 10% tariff on most imports, and additional “reciprocal” tariffs on major trading partners. Unsurprisingly, this was followed...
Tariff ‘stick’ to be followed by ‘fiscal’ carrot?
28 March 2025As most of us are aware, markets have recently been taking one step forward, one step back and this week was no different. Equity markets started with a bit of positivity amid talk that Trump’s April 2nd tariff “Liberation...
Bracing for tariff “Liberation Day”
21 March 2025Capital markets were calmer for most of the week, with a little turbulence into the end. Up until Thursday close, stock prices moved higher and measures of intraday volatility fell somewhat, largely thanks to fewer signs of policy...