Category: Investment Outlook
Price shock reversal
1 December 2023November brought investors the opposite of October and turned most portfolio returns into positive mid-single-digit numbers for the year. As we have written here over the past weeks, the distinct turn in sentiment that drove markets...
US economy slows to our pace
24 November 2023November remains a positive month in capital markets, although equities had a neutral week and longer bond prices have fallen back. UK government bonds (Gilts) have been the best performing bond market in the past few weeks, but...
Inflation genie back in the bottle?
17 November 2023This week was another good one for most investors. In sterling terms, the strongest equity markets were in Europe with the DAX up 4.5% since last Friday afternoon. The biggest winners have been small and mid-sized firms; the FTSE...
Back pedalling central bankers
10 November 2023The turnaround rally in stock and bond markets – started by last week’s dovish central bank comments – petered out towards the end of this week, with central bankers seemingly at pains to reverse their messaging or at least...
Dovishness proves contagious
3 November 2023Just how much change a week can bring to markets was amply visible during the last seven days. Last Friday we wrote about how negative sentiment in stock markets can turn into a self-perpetuating destructive force for an entire...
The resilience narrative comes under pressure
27 October 2023A potentially meaningful change in correlations happened this week. In recent times, a fall in yields (and therefore a rise in bond prices) would go alongside rises in equity prices, particularly the mega-cap growth consumer-related...
Bond yield volatility has markets guessing
20 October 2023While the human suffering in the Middle East conflict worsened as expected this week, it has not yet spread further across the region. Therefore, and as we wrote last week, markets have not particularly acknowledged the rise in...
Capital markets and war
13 October 2023This past week saw the world most certainly taken a turn for the worse from a humanitarian point of view. Pictures of the atrocities committed in the Middle East, and indeed the timing, drew immediate parallels with the Yom Kippur...
Recession fears creeping back
6 October 2023The balmy autumn temperatures have continued into October, but the market chill that has also carried through from September is more troubling. We discuss the asset class returns of the past month and quarter in our next article. ...
To yield or not to yield
24 September 2023This week, stocks and bondsare still bruised from the ‘hawkish pause’. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on Wednesday that it would hold interest rates steady at 5.25-5.5%, but threw in some stern forward guidance to...