Latest news.
Reasons to believe
8 May 2026Markets are feeling hopeful. Iran is still mulling over Donald Trump’s proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but investors are betting on a done deal. Oil prices dropped from around $115 per barrel [pb] on...
Markets making the best of it
1 May 2026The risks we wrote about last week keep rising. The continued US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, along with reports that the US might restart attacks, sent oil prices above $120 per barrel in midweek trading. They have since...
Resilient equity markets, rising risks
27 April 2026Risks have risen compared to a week ago, but global stocks are little changed. The Middle East conflict has simmered down into a tense stalemate, with ongoing dialogue but little progress. Global equity indices are in a holding...
Getting back on track
17 April 2026As we were writing, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” and markets rose sharply. This time, bond yields fell back too. Even before that announcement, equity markets had, more or less, decided that the war...
Brief relief
10 April 2026Markets burst upwards on Wednesday, as the US pulled back from the precipice and announced a ceasefire with Iran. Oil prices dropped over 15% while bonds and stock prices rallied on the hope that global supply chains might quickly...
A seasonal central bank pivot
2 April 2026We start April, and the new quarter, still very much dealing with the consequences of March. Both equity and bond indices’ prices are better since last Friday’s close as we write but the narrative is as febrile as at any point...
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