Government ordered recession

20 March 2020

Just like the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus itself, the rate of policy change over the last few weeks has been astounding. A week ago, Boris Johnson and co. were content to isolate the sick, have the public wash their hands...

Disorderly divestments create confusing market dynamics

12 March 2020

Last week could be characterised as an “orderly” repricing of equity markets to the consequences of COVID-19 disruptions. This week has seen second-order market dynamics, driving valuations down to levels which do not seem...

Coronavirus market update – ramping up countermeasures can be scary

6 March 2020

Since our last update a week ago, market dynamics have developed very much along the lines we outlined as our expectation. The US Federal Reserve has taken the lead and lowered US interest rates by 0.5% to provide additional monetary...

COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fears

26 February 2020

Global equity markets have taken a significant hit this week, as investors started to take news of COVID-19 spreading beyond China to the rest of the world more seriously. We thought it would be a good time to consider the historical...

Bubble trouble

21 February 2020

Compared to last week, there have been few changes to the big picture narrative: Thanks to the virus containment efforts enacted by its government, China’s labour force is only now slowly returning to work following an unusually...

V-shaped recovery focus for Valentine

14 February 2020

While investors enjoyed another upbeat week, the world’s medical profession (and the wider public at large) remained in a more troubled state, with concerns increasing after the World Health Organisation officially renamed this...

Headwinds and tailwinds

31 January 2020

The events of the past few weeks have left some investors wondering whether we are witnessing a rapid deterioration of the erstwhile ‘fair to potentially better than expected’ 2020 outlook. In light of the Chinese Corona virus...

Consolidation ahead?

24 January 2020

The quiet period of Christmas and New Year has definitely ended. Davos World Economic Forum, Chinese Coronavirus, Q4 earnings season, central bank deliberations, first batch of 2020 business sentiment figures and – you guessed...

All central bank liquidity or improved outlook too?

17 January 2020

Following the brief wobble after the escalation in tensions between the US and Iran, the risk appetite that drove the substantial stock market rally towards the end of last year has returned. With yet another good week in stock...

So far so good

10 January 2020

Compared to last week’s ‘brink-of-war’ geopolitical shock start to the year over the US-Iran tensions, this week has brought relatively positive economic news, with not much to upset global markets, even if the general news...